1 in 128 billion.
Those are the odds of a perfect bracket. The perfect bracket is unlikely, if not impossible. March Madness thrills because no one can predict exactly what is going to happen. But on Day 1 of the tournament, everyone feels like they could be the one. And as the results come in and people reach the middle of the day unblemished, the braggadacio rises and suddenly you are the smartest person alive. Or the luckiest. Definitely both, of course.
The perfect brackets feels possible, though, because there are some constants. It’s more likely than not that a top 3 seed will win the tournament, as they have in 14 of the last 15 seasons. Or that a double-digit seed is likely to go no further than the Sweet 16, as has been true all but four times since 2003. But who could have predicted VCU in the Final Four? Butler a hail mary, half-court shot away from a monumental Cinderella championship? Or that Kentucky would not go undefeated in 2015?
Picking a perfect bracket has to consider the inexplicable, the absurd. Together, we will endeavor to analyze the trends, review the matchups, and laugh as our bracket gets busted once again. But that’s part of the fun. We are supposed to fail. That will make success that much sweeter.